Airbus sees 3.8% growth in new aircraft deliveries through 2043 vs last year’s forecast
By Scott Hamilton, Leeham News
Airbus boosted its 20 year forecast for new aircraft deliveries by 3.8% compared with last year’s Global Market Forecast (GMF).
Single aisle mainline aircraft (ie, no regional jets) deliveries edge up by 880 aircraft in the new forecast. Widebody passenger and freighter deliveries also edge up, by 700 aircraft.
GMF forecast 2024-2043
Airbus summarizes:
- Initial average traffic growth rate of 8.4% CAGR until 2027 as it recovers growth lost during the pandemic;
- Long term trend: average annual passenger traffic growth of 3.6% per year from 2027 to 2043, and 3.1% for freight;
- China and India, and more generally Asia-Pacific as a whole, will power growth, further shifting aviation’s center of gravity’ towards Asia;
- The projected 2043 world Fleet-In-Service will be 48,230 in 2043 vs. 24,240 beginning of 2024.
Demand for 42,430 new passenger and freighter deliveries (vs. 40,850 GMF2023) in the 2024-2043 period;
- Of these: 33,510 Single aisle (v 32,630 GMF2023); 8,920 Widebodies (v 8,220 GMF2023);
- This is 1,580 more (v GMF23) reflecting one extra year of growth
- Freighter demand: 2,470 deliveries of which 940 are new-build, the rest coming from P2F conversion; and
- Growth primarily driven by GDP increase (+2.6% 2023-2043), middle class expansion, first time fliers, and growing trade (+3.1% 2023-2043 CAGR vs. +2.9 % GMF23).
Airbus does not specify sub-categories of the single- and twin-aisle sectors. It’s not possible to delineate sub-sectors such as 100-150 seats or 151-240 seats or similar designations within the twin-aisle sector with the information available.
But in the first half of 2024, the A321neo accounts for 93% of the A320 family orders. The A320neo won 6.5% (there was one order for the A319neo.) There were no orders for the A220.
